Balladeer
7yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 107
Santa Anita · Race 7 - John Henry Turf Championship Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 2f
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 12th | −5 |
| 2026-07-24 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-06-05 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 12th | −5 |
| 2026-05-02 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2026-03-14 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 11/01/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 08/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 05/09/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |