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5

Nitti

5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 112

Santa Anita · Race 7 - John Henry Turf Championship Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 2f

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲4
Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Santa Anita 16/03/2024 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 90 · 1m1f Fm 121 · below its mark16/03/2024 · OR 90 par16/03C6OR 90C6 @ Santa Anita 08/04/2024 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 100 · 1m Fm 121 · below its mark08/04/2024 · OR 100 parC6 @ Santa Anita 01/06/2024 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 101 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark01/06/2024 · OR 101 par1/06C6OR 101C6 @ Santa Anita 16/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 93 · 1m1f Fm 124 · beat its mark16/01/2025 · OR 93 parC6 @ Santa Anita 02/03/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 98 · 1m1f Fm 122 · below its mark02/03/2025 · OR 98 par2/03C6OR 98C6 @ Santa Anita 28/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 100 · 1m2f Fm 122 · below its mark28/03/2025 · OR 100 parC6 @ Santa Anita 04/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 103 · 1m1f Fm 124 · beat its mark04/05/2025 · OR 103 par4/05C6OR 103C1 @ Santa Anita 15/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 106 · 1m6f Fm 122 · beat its mark15/06/2025 · OR 106 parC0 @ Del Mar 30/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 112 · 1m3f Fm 119 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 112 par30/08C?OR 112projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Del Mar?6th6th0
2025-06-15Santa Anita?1st1st−0
2025-05-04Santa Anita?1st7th−5
2025-03-28Santa Anita?5th11th−5
2025-03-02Santa Anita?6th12th−5
2025-01-16Santa Anita?1st8th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0316/014/0530/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/03/20242nd12/137%86%+0.49
08/04/20246th11/271%50%-0.21
01/06/20246th10/147%38%-0.10
16/01/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
02/03/20256th20/10%55%+0.55
28/03/20255th9/153%50%-0.03
04/05/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
15/06/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
30/08/20266th33/10%50%+0.50