Popular Dream
6yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 57
Southwell · Gent's Night Sat 24th October Handicap · 4f 214y
#3
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Southwell | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Southwell | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Southwell | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 06/01/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 13/01/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 17/01/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |
| 27/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 10/03/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 28/03/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 30% | -0.44 |
| 21/05/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |