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Protest Rally

6yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 65

Southwell · Gent's Night Sat 24th October Handicap · 4f 214y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner in May 2025 prior to edging down the weights and offered something to work on returning from a year off when fifth of 9 in handicap (66/1) at Catterick (5f, good) 18 days ago, not knocked about. Cheekpieces back on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength72%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 10/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 70 · 4f217y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/05/2025 · OR 70 par10/055OR 704 @ Pontefract 23/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 70 · 5f3y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Pontefract 09/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 73 · 5f3y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/06/2025 · OR 73 par9/065OR 734 @ Ripon 07/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 73 · 5f Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2025 · OR 73 par4 @ York 11/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 73 · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2025 · OR 73 par11/074OR 734 @ York 26/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 19 · OR 72 · 5f Goo 158 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 72 par4 @ Musselburgh 01/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 72 · 5f1y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2025 · OR 72 par1/084OR 724 @ Musselburgh 08/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 70 · 5f1y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 67 par8/095OR 67projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick55th4th+1
2025-08-08Musselburgh45th3rd+2
2025-08-01Musselburgh44th2nd+2
2025-07-26York48th6th+2
2025-07-11York48th6th+2
2025-07-07Ripon46th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/057/071/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength53%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/05/20254th9/276%77%+0.01
23/05/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
09/06/20253rd11/486%50%-0.36
07/07/20256th13/266%38%-0.28
11/07/20258th13/266%53%-0.12
26/07/20258th33/10%61%+0.61
01/08/20254th11/271%50%-0.21
08/08/20255th5/287%33%-0.54
08/09/20265th66/10%50%+0.50