Sam's Xpress
6yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 60
Southwell · Gent's Night Sat 24th October Handicap · 4f 214y
#7
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Yarmouth | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Pontefract | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-03-09 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/12/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 24/01/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 71% | -0.20 |
| 13/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 09/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 20/03/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 25/07/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 05/08/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 30/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |