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7

Tomarlo

4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 55

Southwell · Gent's Night Sat 24th October Handicap · 4f 214y

#5

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got off the mark for Ollie Sangster at Wolverhampton (6f) in July. Not in same form under a penalty at Chepstow next time and might've needed the run making his debut for this yard at Leicester 18 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA64 @ Dundalk 05/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 64 · 5f Std 128 · below its mark05/12/2025 · OR 64 par5/1264OR 645 @ Wolverhampton 23/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 63 · 5f21y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/01/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Lingfield 25/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 60 · 5f6y Std 135 · beat its mark25/02/2026 · OR 60 par25/026OR 605 @ Lingfield 20/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 57 · 7f1y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Wolverhampton 05/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 54 · 5f21y Std 134 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 54 par5/056OR 546 @ Chepstow 06/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 53 · 5f16y Sft 128 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Wolverhampton 07/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 52 · 6f20y Std 132 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 52 par7/076OR 526 @ Chepstow 16/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 52 · 7f16y GF 137 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 52 par5 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 57 · 6f GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 57 par8/095OR 57projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Leicester57th6th+1
2026-07-16Chepstow65th5th0
2026-07-07Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-06-06Chepstow63rd3rd0
2026-05-05Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-03-20Lingfield510th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/1220/037/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/12/20256th9/276%17%-0.60
23/01/20267th25/10%0%0.00
25/02/20267th14/126%25%-0.01
20/03/202610th80/10%0%0.00
05/05/20264th7/491%57%-0.34
06/06/20263rd4/179%75%-0.04
07/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
16/07/20265th13/266%64%-0.02
08/09/20267th20/10%40%+0.40