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5

Torfrida

6yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 55

Southwell · Gent's Night Sat 24th October Handicap · 4f 214y

#8

Rank

Odds

17/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has been given a chance by the handicapper and wasn't disgraced when fourth of 8 over C&D in June. Down the field upped to 6f when last seen here 41 days ago, though, and has a bit to prove on balance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength55%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Leicester 13/08/2023 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 70 · 6f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/08/2023 · OR 70 par13/085OR 705 @ Doncaster 27/04/2024 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 69 · 6f2y Sft 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/04/2024 · OR 69 par5 @ Doncaster 17/08/2024 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 67 · 7f6y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2024 · OR 67 par17/085OR 676 @ Pontefract 08/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 65 · 5f3y Gd 135 · beat its mark08/04/2025 · OR 65 par5 @ Windsor 28/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 67 · 5f21y GF 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/04/2025 · OR 67 par28/045OR 674 @ Pontefract 23/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 67 · 5f3y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2025 · OR 67 par5 @ Pontefract 08/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 65 · 5f3y Goo 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/07/2025 · OR 65 par8/075OR 655 @ Southwell 18/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 60 · 4f214y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Southwell 16/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 58 · 6f16y Std 133 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 58 par16/086OR 58projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Southwell612th12th0
2026-06-18Southwell54th3rd+1
2025-07-08Pontefract57th6th+1
2025-05-23Pontefract46th4th+2
2025-04-28Windsor54th3rd+1
2025-04-08Pontefract62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/088/048/0716/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength47%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/08/20234th9/488%25%-0.63
27/04/20247th7/282%14%-0.67
17/08/20249th40/10%27%+0.27
08/04/20252nd16/116%89%+0.73
28/04/20254th11/486%70%-0.16
23/05/20256th9/488%17%-0.71
08/07/20257th7/282%14%-0.67
18/06/20264th15/261%57%-0.03
16/08/202612th14/126%15%-0.11