Plastic Dream

2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 69

Southwell · Dance Through The Decades Christmas Parties EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) · 4f 215y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C4.0

Today: 5

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-16	Yarmouth	4	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-09-07	Windsor	5	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-08-20	Newmarket	3	4th	2nd	+2	8.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength71%

Delivery trend -14.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/08/2026	4th	22/1	0%	25%	+0.25
07/09/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	85%	+0.48
16/09/2026	4th	15/2	61%	57%	-0.03