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Bassenthwaite

3yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 86

Southwell · Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap (Div 1) · 4f 215y

#8

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Posted some solid winning form in a progressive juvenile season. Shaped better than the beaten distance in a fairly useful event at Newcastle (6f) in January and shaped as if he'd come on for the outing both starts this season, though has been off for another 2 months since the latter of those.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Ascot 10/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 5f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS10/0535 @ Bath 23/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 5f10y Fm 1305 @ Ffos Las 09/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 5f Goo 1309/0754 @ Sandown 29/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 82 · 5f10y Sft 133 · below its mark29/08/2025 · OR 82 par4 @ Wolverhampton 03/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 81 · 5f21y Std 131 · beat its mark03/11/2025 · OR 81 par3/114OR 812 @ Newcastle 16/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 92 · 6f Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 92 par3 @ Windsor 22/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 92 · 5f21y GF 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 92 par22/063OR 922 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 89 · 5f GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 89 par25/072OR 89projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Ascot210th8th+2
2026-06-22Windsor39th8th+1
2026-01-16Newcastle210th8th+2
2025-11-03Wolverhampton41st1st0
2025-08-29Sandown44th4th0
2025-07-09Ffos Las51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0529/0822/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength16%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/05/20256th33/10%17%+0.17
23/05/20255th11/142%20%-0.22
09/07/20251st22/10%100%+1.00
29/08/20254th9/488%25%-0.63
03/11/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
16/01/202610th14/126%10%-0.16
22/06/20269th28/10%0%0.00
25/07/202610th33/10%25%+0.25