4
Elyam
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 84
Southwell · Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap (Div 1) · 4f 215y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
52%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-08-24 | Windsor | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2024-08-02 | Newmarket | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-07-20 | Newbury | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/2024 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 02/08/2024 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 24/08/2024 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |