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10

Juan Les Pins

9yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 76

Southwell · Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap (Div 1) · 4f 215y

#7

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran who had a good spell in the spring (winning twice) and showed signs of a return to form when sixth of 13 in handicap at Newmarket (6f, good, 16/1) 35 days ago, racing freely without cover. Mark is steadily easing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 74 · 6f Std 129 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 74 par12/034OR 744 @ Newcastle 19/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 72 · 5f Std 125 · beat its mark19/03/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 75 · 5f3y GS 135 · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 75 par29/035OR 755 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 75 · 6f Gd 140 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 75 par3 @ Newbury 17/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 76 · 6f Gd 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 76 par17/043OR 764 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 77 par3 @ Thirsk 01/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 79 · 6f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 79 par1/073OR 794 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 16th of 19 · OR 79 · 6f Goo 134 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 77 · 6f Gd 132 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 77 par22/084OR 77projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Newmarket46th6th0
2026-07-11York416th16th0
2026-07-01Thirsk39th8th+1
2026-05-09Ascot42nd2nd0
2026-04-17Newbury33rd2nd+1
2026-04-10Thirsk51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0310/041/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength24%

Delivery trend -6.2% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/03/20262nd12/137%90%+0.53
19/03/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
29/03/20262nd10/147%94%+0.46
10/04/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
17/04/20263rd10/147%87%+0.39
09/05/20262nd9/276%94%+0.18
01/07/20269th9/276%11%-0.65
11/07/202616th14/126%17%-0.10
22/08/20266th16/116%58%+0.43