IvyArcIvyArc
9

Noble Vow

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 80

Southwell · Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap (Div 1) · 4f 215y

#6

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed improved form when winning a Bath maiden (5.7f) in May and followed up in handicap at Haydock later that month. Saddle slipped next time and looked rusty after 2 months off when always behind at Glorious Goodwood. Had no luck in the run at Chester last week and we know he's better than that.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 19/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 6f Goo 13319/0945 @ Wolverhampton 20/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 76 · 6f20y Std 133 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 76 par4 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 76 · 5f160y Gd 131 · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 76 par17/044OR 764 @ Kempton 04/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 75 · 6f Sta 132 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Bath 12/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 75 · 5f160y Fm 132 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 75 par12/054OR 754 @ Haydock 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 75 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 82 · 5f Goo 132 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 82 par31/054OR 823 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 17th of 18 · OR 82 · 5f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Chester 19/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 80 · 5f15y Hvy 132 · below its mark19/09/2026 · OR 80 par19/094OR 80projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Chester411th11th0
2026-07-30Goodwood317th16th+1
2026-05-31Thirsk412th12th0
2026-05-23Haydock41st1st0
2026-05-12Bath41st1st0
2026-05-04Kempton43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/094/0531/0519/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength5%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/20253rd6/168%82%+0.13
20/10/20252nd9/488%88%-0.01
17/04/20265th11/142%67%+0.25
04/05/20263rd9/488%80%-0.08
12/05/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
23/05/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
31/05/202612th7/282%0%-0.82
30/07/202617th25/10%6%+0.06
19/09/202611th28/10%0%0.00