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7

Paddy's Day

6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 82

Southwell · Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap (Div 1) · 4f 215y

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had a tremendous 2025 on all-weather, winning 6 times at Newcastle (all at 5f). Not in the same form on turf of late but he's now 6 lb lower than for his last win returned to this synthetic surface.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength58%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newcastle 24/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 90 · 5f Std 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/01/2026 · OR 90 par24/012OR 903 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 90 · 5f Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 90 par3 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 90 · 6f1y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 90 par27/033OR 903 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 89 · 6f Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 88 · 5f3y GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 88 par6/063OR 882 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 87 · 5f Sta 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ Doncaster 03/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 87 · 5f3y GF 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 87 par3/073OR 873 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 85 · 5f Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 84 · 5f3y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 84 par13/093OR 84projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster36th5th+1
2026-08-29Beverley39th8th+1
2026-07-03Doncaster33rd2nd+1
2026-06-26Newcastle27th5th+2
2026-06-06Doncaster32nd1st+1
2026-04-13Newcastle37th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0113/043/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/01/20263rd9/276%50%-0.26
06/02/20263rd9/153%85%+0.32
27/03/20265th16/116%69%+0.53
13/04/20267th15/261%33%-0.27
06/06/20262nd12/137%88%+0.51
26/06/20267th8/158%54%-0.04
03/07/20263rd7/282%67%-0.15
29/08/20269th25/10%0%0.00
13/09/20266th40/10%67%+0.67