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5

Spring Is Sprung

7yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 84

Southwell · Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap (Div 1) · 4f 215y

#3

Rank

Odds

17/2

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at C&D in January and has made the frame on 4 of his last 5 starts, beaten only narrowly when third of 5 in handicap at Redcar (5f, good to firm, 4/1) 49 days ago. Should remain competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength65%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Southwell 13/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 83 · 4f214y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 83 par13/013OR 833 @ Southwell 04/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 87 · 4f214y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 87 par4 @ Southwell 09/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 87 · 4f214y Std 137 · below its mark09/04/2026 · OR 87 par9/044OR 873 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 86 · 5f7y Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 86 par4 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 85 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 85 par31/054OR 853 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 85 · 5f Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 84 · 5f Goo 139 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 84 par10/074OR 842 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 16th of 23 · OR 85 · 5f Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Redcar 08/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 84 · 5f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 84 par8/083OR 84projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Redcar33rd2nd+1
2026-07-28Goodwood216th14th+2
2026-07-10York42nd2nd0
2026-06-20Redcar33rd2nd+1
2026-05-31Thirsk44th4th0
2026-05-17Hamilton37th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0117/0510/078/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength75%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/01/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
04/03/20264th4/179%67%-0.12
09/04/20264th15/890%40%-0.50
17/05/20267th18/15%50%+0.45
31/05/20264th20/10%81%+0.81
20/06/20263rd16/116%75%+0.59
10/07/20262nd8/158%91%+0.33
28/07/202616th50/10%32%+0.32
08/08/20263rd4/179%50%-0.29