8

Wateen

3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 81

Southwell · Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap (Div 1) · 4f 215y

#9

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Possibly flattered when third in a 5f listed race in France on penultimate start for Alice Haynes but failed to come on her stable debut when trailing home last of 6 in handicap at Redcar (5f, good). Off 98 days. Makes tapeta debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ayr 28/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 5f Gd 12828/0454 @ Doncaster 17/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 5f3y Goo 1285 @ Lingfield 11/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 4f217y Goo 12811/065C1 @ Deauville 05/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 72 · 4f213y GS 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 72 parC1 @ Deauville 09/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 79 · 4f213y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 79 par9/08C1OR 79C1 @ ParisLongchamp 31/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 90 · 4f213y Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2025 · OR 90 par4 @ Nottingham 31/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 87 · 5f8y Goo 136 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 87 par31/054OR 874 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 84 · 5f Gd 134 · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 84 par20/064OR 84projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-20Redcar46th6th0
2026-05-31Nottingham46th6th0
2025-08-31ParisLongchamp?10th6th+3
2025-08-09Deauville?3rd-1th+3
2025-07-05Deauville?4th0th+3
2025-06-11Lingfield51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/045/0731/0520/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/04/20252nd5/174%75%+0.01
17/05/20252nd8/158%92%+0.34
11/06/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
05/07/20254th18/15%57%+0.52
09/08/20253rd18/15%67%+0.61
31/08/202510th50/10%0%0.00
31/05/20266th9/153%17%-0.36
20/06/20266th25/10%0%0.00