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Ziggy's Triton

4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 86

Southwell · Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap (Div 1) · 4f 215y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

47%

Place Prob

44%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful twice this year, taking advantage of a drop in grade when scoring over 5f at York in July. Not best placed when ninth of 21 in handicap at same track (5.4f, good) 38 days ago and drop to bare 5f should prove up his street.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 86 · 5f1y Goo 136 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 86 par26/044OR 862 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 15th of 21 · OR 91 · 5f Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 91 · 5f Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 91 par23/052OR 912 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 89 · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 87 · 5f Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 87 par20/063OR 874 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 86 · 5f Goo 141 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 23 · OR 89 · 5f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 89 par28/072OR 893 @ Newbury 15/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 88 · 5f34y GF 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 88 par2 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 21 · OR 88 · 5f89y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 88 par19/082OR 88projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19York29th7th+2
2026-08-15Newbury310th9th+1
2026-07-28Goodwood210th8th+2
2026-07-10York41st1st0
2026-06-20Redcar37th6th+1
2026-06-06Epsom Downs211th9th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/046/0628/0719/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength81%

Delivery trend -5.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
14/05/202615th33/10%30%+0.30
23/05/20267th28/10%60%+0.60
06/06/202611th22/10%47%+0.47
20/06/20267th6/168%25%-0.43
10/07/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
28/07/202610th33/10%59%+0.59
15/08/202610th15/261%18%-0.42
19/08/20269th33/10%60%+0.60