Fidelius
5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 87
Southwell · Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap (Div 2) · 4f 215y
#5
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Catterick | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Redcar | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 2 | 13th | 11th | +2 |
| 2026-05-22 | Goodwood | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Bath | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Southwell | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 05/03/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 09/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 04/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 22/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 26/06/2026 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 26/08/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |