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5

Moulin Booj

6yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 84

Southwell · Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap (Div 2) · 4f 215y

#3

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner who gained reward for consistency when scoring at Nottingham last month. Found life tougher under a penalty when fifth of 9 in handicap at Thirsk (5f, good, 9/4) 43 days ago but is 2 lb lower this time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 81 · 6f20y Std 137 · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 81 par20/034OR 813 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 84 · 6f1y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Bath 04/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 83 · 5f10y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 83 par4/053OR 834 @ Windsor 01/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 82 · 5f21y GF 132 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Brighton 21/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 82 · 5f60y GF 137 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 82 par21/064OR 823 @ Doncaster 03/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 82 · 5f3y GF 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 81 · 5f Goo 141 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 81 par1/084OR 814 @ Nottingham 11/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 81 · 5f8y Goo 134 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 81 · 5f Goo 141 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 81 par14/084OR 81projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Thirsk45th5th0
2026-08-11Nottingham41st1st0
2026-08-01Thirsk42nd2nd0
2026-07-03Doncaster35th4th+1
2026-06-21Brighton42nd2nd0
2026-06-01Windsor43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/031/061/0814/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength9%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/03/202611th16/116%0%-0.16
03/04/20266th33/10%55%+0.55
04/05/20266th9/276%0%-0.76
01/06/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06
21/06/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
03/07/20265th4/179%33%-0.46
01/08/20262nd5/174%91%+0.17
11/08/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
14/08/20265th9/488%50%-0.38