Paradise Walk
3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 78
Southwell · Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap (Div 2) · 4f 215y
#4
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kempton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | 3 | 17th | 16th | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Nottingham | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Windsor | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newmarket | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 89% | +0.34 |
| 18/12/2025 | 2nd | 30/100 | 98% | 90% | -0.08 |
| 10/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 28/07/2026 | 17th | 18/1 | 5% | 16% | +0.11 |
| 05/09/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 30% | -0.36 |