True Promise
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 79
Southwell · Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap (Div 2) · 4f 215y
#6
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Newcastle | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Chester | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 64% | -0.21 |
| 01/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 09/05/2026 | 12th | 8/1 | 58% | 35% | -0.23 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 01/08/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 06/09/2026 | 17th | 66/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |