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4

Bondi

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 70

Southwell · Tipsy Tapas At Winter Ladies Evening Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#7

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Twice a winner for Richard Hannon last year and showed promise when seventh of 12 over C&D starting out for a new yard on return from 10 months off last time, not given a hard time. One to note if the market speaks in his favour.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 16/04/2025 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR - · 1m Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS16/0425 @ Windsor 28/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 1m31y GF 1284 @ Windsor 05/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 1m31y GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS5/0545 @ Windsor 23/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 68 · 1m3f99y GF 135 · beat its mark23/06/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Thirsk 02/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 73 · 1m4f8y Goo 132 · below its mark02/08/2025 · OR 73 par2/085OR 734 @ Newmarket 22/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 73 · 1m4f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 73 par5 @ Haydock 05/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 74 · 1m3f140y Goo 133 · below its mark05/09/2025 · OR 74 par5/095OR 745 @ Kempton 10/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 74 · 1m3f219y Sta 135 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 74 par4 @ Southwell 16/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 73 · 1m4f14y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 73 par16/084OR 73projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Southwell47th6th+1
2025-10-10Kempton56th6th0
2025-09-05Haydock58th8th0
2025-08-22Newmarket41st0th+1
2025-08-02Thirsk56th6th0
2025-06-23Windsor51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0423/065/0916/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength2%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/04/202510th28/10%36%+0.36
28/04/20255th7/282%60%-0.22
05/05/20254th25/10%73%+0.73
23/06/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
02/08/20256th4/179%17%-0.62
22/08/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
05/09/20258th13/266%30%-0.36
10/10/20256th12/137%44%+0.08
16/08/20267th50/10%45%+0.45