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3

Dream Harder

7yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 73

Southwell · Tipsy Tapas At Winter Ladies Evening Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#5

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Epsom over this trip in July with first-time tongue strap but ran no sort of race when seventh of 8 at Haydock 22 days ago, testing conditions a possible factor. Has won on the all-weather before so should run better this time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Epsom Downs 28/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 85 · 1m4f6y Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/09/2025 · OR 85 par28/094OR 852 @ Kempton 03/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 81 · 1m2f219y Sta 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/11/2025 · OR 81 par2 @ Newcastle 17/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 81 · 1m2f42y Std 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/11/2025 · OR 81 par17/112OR 813 @ Wolverhampton 29/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 79 · 1m5f219y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/11/2025 · OR 79 par4 @ Ripon 17/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 77 · 1m4f10y Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 77 par17/064OR 775 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 75 · 1m4f63y Goo 135 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Epsom Downs 30/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 72 · 1m4f6y GF 133 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 72 par30/075OR 725 @ Haydock 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 72 · 1m6f Goo 157 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 74 · 1m6f Hvy 142 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 74 par4/095OR 74projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Haydock57th7th0
2026-08-07Haydock54th4th0
2026-07-30Epsom Downs51st1st0
2026-07-11Chester58th8th0
2026-06-17Ripon46th5th+1
2025-11-29Wolverhampton36th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0929/1130/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength38%

Delivery trend +6.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/09/20256th11/271%38%-0.34
03/11/20256th18/15%55%+0.49
17/11/20256th11/142%17%-0.25
29/11/20256th8/158%0%-0.58
17/06/20266th28/10%0%0.00
11/07/20268th33/10%0%0.00
30/07/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
07/08/20264th18/15%50%+0.45
04/09/20267th22/10%14%+0.14