IvyArcIvyArc
2

Flightofthephoenix

4yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 73

Southwell · Tipsy Tapas At Winter Ladies Evening Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got off the mark at Kempton in August then followed up at Ffos Las later that month before finishing sixth of 11 at Haydock 23 days ago under a 5 lb penalty. Good-value claimer aboard for the return to all-weather.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 02/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 72 · 1m2f Std 133 · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 72 par2/105OR 725 @ Wolverhampton 18/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 73 · 1m1f104y Std 135 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 73 par5 @ Wolverhampton 15/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 72 · 1m142y Std 136 · beat its mark15/12/2025 · OR 72 par15/125OR 725 @ Lingfield 10/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 70 · 1m2f Std 133 · beat its mark10/01/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Lingfield 30/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 68 · 1m2f Std 141 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 68 par30/045OR 685 @ Nottingham 30/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 65 · 1m2f50y Goo 154 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Kempton 10/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 65 · 1m2f219y Sta 140 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 65 par10/085OR 655 @ Ffos Las 28/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 68 · 1m3f209y GS 133 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Haydock 03/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 68 · 1m3f140y Sft 159 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 68 par3/095OR 68projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Haydock56th6th0
2026-08-28Ffos Las51st1st0
2026-08-10Kempton51st1st0
2026-07-30Nottingham52nd2nd0
2026-04-30Lingfield57th7th0
2026-01-10Lingfield57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1010/0110/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength63%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/10/20253rd12/137%83%+0.46
18/10/20255th4/179%50%-0.29
15/12/20253rd4/179%67%-0.12
10/01/20267th9/276%33%-0.43
30/04/20267th17/255%25%-0.30
30/07/20262nd7/282%80%-0.02
10/08/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
28/08/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
03/09/20266th7/282%50%-0.32