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5

Madjid

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 75

Southwell · Tipsy Tapas At Winter Ladies Evening Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved when made all twice in last 3 starts, including over this trip at Kempton in August. Went off hard enough in front when second of 5 there over 11f last time and could prove hard to peg back if getting more the run of things here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 08/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 7f1y Std 1338/1253 @ Southwell 17/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m13y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Doncaster 24/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 65 · 1m2f43y Goo 131 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 65 par24/045OR 655 @ Newbury 15/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 67 · 1m2f Gd 132 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Doncaster 05/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 66 · 1m2f43y GF 129 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 66 par5/065OR 665 @ Newbury 02/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 66 · 1m2f GF 123 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Newmarket 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 64 · 1m2f GF 130 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 64 par18/075OR 645 @ Kempton 26/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 68 · 1m3f219y Sta 133 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Kempton 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 68 · 1m2f219y Sta 141 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 68 par2/095OR 68projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Kempton52nd2nd0
2026-08-26Kempton51st1st0
2026-07-18Newmarket51st1st0
2026-07-02Newbury57th7th0
2026-06-05Doncaster55th5th0
2026-05-15Newbury59th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1215/0518/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength62%

Delivery trend -4.7% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/12/202510th80/10%18%+0.18
17/01/20264th125/10%50%+0.50
24/04/20262nd7/163%88%+0.24
15/05/20269th9/276%38%-0.38
05/06/20265th7/491%33%-0.57
02/07/20267th7/163%40%-0.23
18/07/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
26/08/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
02/09/20262nd4/998%75%-0.23