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4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 75

Southwell · Tipsy Tapas At Winter Ladies Evening Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

88%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaped well when placed over 1¼m in visor last 2 starts. Returns to Southwell where he has won twice, including over this trip, and looks sure to go well.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 30/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 76 · 1m1f104y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 76 par30/034OR 765 @ Newcastle 20/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 74 · 1m4f98y Std 134 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Newbury 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 74 · 1m4f Gd 134 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 74 par15/055OR 744 @ Yarmouth 11/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 78 · 1m3f104y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Newmarket 17/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 78 · 1m4f GF 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 78 par17/074OR 784 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 76 · 1m3f211y GF 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Newmarket 21/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 75 · 1m4f Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 75 par21/084OR 755 @ Yarmouth 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 74 · 1m2f23y GS 135 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Epsom Downs 10/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 74 · 1m2f17y Goo 134 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 74 par10/095OR 74projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Epsom Downs53rd3rd0
2026-08-30Yarmouth52nd2nd0
2026-08-21Newmarket43rd2nd+1
2026-07-25Ascot46th5th+1
2026-07-17Newmarket43rd2nd+1
2026-06-11Yarmouth44th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0311/0621/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength88%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/03/20268th8/158%36%-0.22
20/04/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
15/05/20262nd5/174%93%+0.19
11/06/20264th9/276%40%-0.36
17/07/20263rd5/174%33%-0.40
25/07/20266th22/10%64%+0.64
21/08/20263rd13/266%33%-0.32
30/08/20262nd9/276%86%+0.09
10/09/20263rd7/282%75%-0.07