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6

Roker Roar

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 73

Southwell · Tipsy Tapas At Winter Ladies Evening Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Placed on all 3 handicap starts this summer, most recently second of 7 over C&D 23 days ago when finding only one too strong. Should be competitive again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Goodwood 12/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 1m1f11y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS12/1045 @ Newcastle 06/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 1m5y Std 1336/1153 @ Kempton 21/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 1m2f219y Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS21/0134 @ Sandown 24/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 72 · 1m1f209y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 72 par24/074OR 725 @ Windsor 13/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 70 · 1m3f99y GF 130 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 70 par13/085OR 705 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 72 · 1m4f15y Std 135 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 72 par3/095OR 72projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Southwell52nd2nd0
2026-08-13Windsor52nd2nd0
2026-07-24Sandown43rd2nd+1
2026-01-21Kempton33rd1st+2
2025-11-06Newcastle54th4th0
2025-10-12Goodwood47th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/106/1121/0124/0713/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +10.5% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/10/20257th7/163%0%-0.63
06/11/20254th20/10%67%+0.67
21/01/20263rd10/1195%33%-0.62
24/07/20263rd22/10%50%+0.50
13/08/20262nd8/158%67%+0.09
03/09/20262nd15/261%83%+0.23