4
Chilli King
3yo Gelding · 9-7
Southwell · 3rd And 10th Oktoberfest Race Nights Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 24y
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Southwell | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Bath | 4 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +69.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 14% | -0.41 |
| 30/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |