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12

Church Wedding

3yo Filly · 9-2

Southwell · 3rd And 10th Oktoberfest Race Nights Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 24y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made appeal on paper and, having been well backed, showed plenty to work on when third of 13 in a 1m maiden at Kempton on debut in January. Off 7 months after and merely matched that form over 11f at same venue, albeit not given a hard time. Capable of better.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 14/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 1m Sta 12214/0143 @ Kempton 05/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f219y Sta 1255/083projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-05Kempton37th7th0
2026-01-14Kempton43rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/015/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength10%

Delivery trend -13.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/01/20263rd1/195%83%-0.11
05/08/20267th8/158%33%-0.25