1
Liam Mera Kai
5yo Gelding · 9-13
Southwell · 3rd And 10th Oktoberfest Race Nights Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 24y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Nottingham | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Warwick | 4 | −1 | ||
| 2026-01-15 | Wincanton | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Southwell | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-25 | Hereford | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 25/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.06 |
| 14/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 88% | -0.07 |
| 15/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 82% | -0.06 |
| 19/05/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |