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11

Train In Vain

3yo Gelding · 9-7

Southwell · 3rd And 10th Oktoberfest Race Nights Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 24y

#6

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Masar gelding. Half-brother to several winners, including 2-y-o 6f winner Majestic Wave and 8.6f winner Cuban Harry. Dam 2-y-o 5.3f winner. Limited short-term promise on Redcar debut over 1m 17 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f219y Goo 1339/094
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Redcar45th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 3-8 · 50%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength25%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/09/20265th100/10%50%+0.50