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12

Ballybunion

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 63

Southwell · Book The Bistro In Seasons Restaurant Apprentice Handicap · 1m 13y

#7

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Not seen to best effect on 3 of his last 4 starts (made effort earlier than ideal when upped in trip last time) and mark eases again. One to consider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength68%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Yarmouth 16/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f3y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS16/0945 @ Ripon 27/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Yarmouth 13/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 6f3y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS13/1044 @ Ascot 08/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 19 · OR 72 · 6f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 69 · 7f36y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 69 par31/075OR 695 @ Kempton 10/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 67 · 1m Sta 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 66 · 1m13y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 66 par31/085OR 666 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 65 · 1m1f104y Std 136 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 65 par15/096OR 65projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Wolverhampton67th7th0
2026-08-31Southwell53rd2nd+1
2026-08-10Kempton54th3rd+1
2026-07-31Wolverhampton56th5th+1
2026-05-08Ascot413th11th+2
2025-10-13Yarmouth42nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/098/0531/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%

Delivery trend -6.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20257th20/10%14%+0.14
27/09/20252nd15/261%67%+0.06
13/10/20252nd13/266%80%+0.14
08/05/202613th20/10%33%+0.33
31/07/20266th12/137%44%+0.08
10/08/20264th5/174%77%+0.03
31/08/20263rd7/282%75%-0.07
15/09/20267th13/891%45%-0.46