Big Alex Walmsley
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 55
Southwell · Book The Bistro In Seasons Restaurant Apprentice Handicap · 1m 13y
#13
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Yarmouth | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Newmarket | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Yarmouth | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Yarmouth | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Lingfield | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-10-08 | Kempton | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -9.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 16/09/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 08/10/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 01/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |