Imola
5yo Mare · 9-12 · OR 63
Southwell · Book The Bistro In Seasons Restaurant Apprentice Handicap · 1m 13y
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-17 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Southwell | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 16/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 70% | -0.23 |
| 11/02/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |
| 17/02/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 21/07/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |