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6

The Cookstown Cafu

7yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 63

Southwell · Book The Bistro In Seasons Restaurant Apprentice Handicap · 1m 13y

#8

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Strong in the market and took advantage of a reduced mark with more in hand than the bare margin implies on Newcastle reappearance. Looked stretched by the longer trip at Pontefract since and he remains well treated on old form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength66%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Thirsk 06/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 72 · 7f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 72 par6/094OR 725 @ Thirsk 15/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 70 · 7f Sft 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/09/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Catterick 01/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 69 · 7f6y Sft 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/10/2025 · OR 69 par1/105OR 695 @ Wolverhampton 28/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 67 · 7f36y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 67 par5 @ Newcastle 02/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 66 · 7f14y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/12/2025 · OR 66 par2/125OR 666 @ Newcastle 19/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 64 · 1m5y Std 138 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 64 par5 @ Newcastle 29/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 62 · 1m5y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/12/2025 · OR 62 par29/125OR 626 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 59 · 1m5y Std 135 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Pontefract 02/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 64 · 1m2f5y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 64 par2/065OR 64projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-02Pontefract57th6th+1
2026-04-13Newcastle61st1st0
2025-12-29Newcastle56th5th+1
2025-12-19Newcastle66th6th0
2025-12-02Newcastle59th8th+1
2025-10-28Wolverhampton55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0928/1029/122/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength34%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/09/202510th40/10%36%+0.36
15/09/20255th14/126%60%+0.34
01/10/202510th16/116%18%+0.02
28/10/20255th3/184%20%-0.64
02/12/20259th20/10%20%+0.20
19/12/20256th17/255%38%-0.18
29/12/20256th18/15%55%+0.49
13/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
02/06/20267th18/15%14%+0.09