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13

Bundok

3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 68

Southwell · Festive Fixtures At Southwell Racecourse Handicap · 7f 15y

#6

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran her best race taking on her elders for the first time when third of 14 in handicap at Kempton (7f, 18/1) 17 days ago. Switched to tapeta now and ought to remain competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 17/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 7f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS17/0444 @ Kempton 04/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 6f Sta 127 · HIGHER CLASS4/0545 @ Leicester 25/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 12825/0555 @ Goodwood 12/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 70 · 6f Sft 135 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 70 par12/065OR 705 @ Kempton 02/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 68 · 7f Sta 139 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 68 par2/095OR 685 @ Kempton 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 68 · 7f Sta 132 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 68 par9/095OR 68projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Kempton53rd3rd0
2026-09-02Kempton55th5th0
2026-06-12Goodwood53rd3rd0
2026-05-25Leicester53rd3rd0
2026-05-04Kempton45th4th+1
2026-04-17Newbury411th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/044/0525/0512/062/099/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/04/202611th50/10%0%0.00
04/05/20265th50/10%60%+0.60
25/05/20263rd11/271%78%+0.07
12/06/20263rd8/158%75%+0.17
02/09/20265th14/126%20%-0.06
09/09/20263rd18/15%85%+0.79