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7

Caragio

6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 69

Southwell · Festive Fixtures At Southwell Racecourse Handicap · 7f 15y

#5

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed stable debut promise when winning 6-runner handicap at Yarmouth (6f) in April. Below that level in 2 outings at the start of the summer but went like the best horse at the weights in a classified race at Doncaster (1m) 15 days ago and of interest back at 7f on return to handicap company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 21/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 80 · 1m13y Sta 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/09/2025 · OR 80 par21/094OR 805 @ Chelmsford City 16/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 75 · 7f Std 135 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 75 par5 @ Chelmsford City 27/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 70 · 7f Std 133 · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 70 par27/115OR 705 @ Wolverhampton 15/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 66 · 1m142y Std 132 · beat its mark15/12/2025 · OR 66 par6 @ Chelmsford City 26/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 63 · 7f Std 133 · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 63 par26/036OR 635 @ Yarmouth 21/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 66 · 6f3y GF 131 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Newcastle 01/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 66 · 6f Std 136 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 66 par1/055OR 665 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 73 · 7f6y Goo 133 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Doncaster 11/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 70 · 1m Goo 161 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 70 par11/095OR 70projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Doncaster53rd3rd0
2026-06-14Doncaster56th6th0
2026-05-01Newcastle55th5th0
2026-04-21Yarmouth51st1st0
2026-03-26Chelmsford City62nd3rd−1
2025-12-15Wolverhampton56th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0915/121/0511/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength62%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/09/202512th25/10%0%0.00
16/10/20257th40/10%0%0.00
27/11/20257th20/10%25%+0.25
15/12/20256th17/255%17%-0.39
26/03/20262nd2/189%90%+0.01
21/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
01/05/20265th6/492%64%-0.28
14/06/20266th11/142%50%+0.08
11/09/20263rd7/282%83%+0.02