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9

Decem Starr

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 70

Southwell · Festive Fixtures At Southwell Racecourse Handicap · 7f 15y

#11

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Managed some minor progress switched to handicap company in first-time cheekpieces when fourth of 9 at Doncaster (1m) in May. Below form on both subsequent starts, though, including on all-weather debut here last time. First run for yard after leaving Jack Jones.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 23/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f12y Goo 13323/0854 @ Leicester 09/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS9/0945 @ Redcar 27/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f Goo 13327/1054 @ Catterick 08/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 76 · 7f6y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 76 par8/044OR 765 @ Doncaster 02/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 74 · 7f213y Goo 134 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 74 par2/055OR 745 @ Salisbury 23/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 73 · 6f213y Gd 135 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 73 par23/055OR 735 @ Southwell 05/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 72 · 1m13y Std 132 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 72 par5/075OR 72projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-05Southwell58th8th0
2026-05-23Salisbury510th10th0
2026-05-02Doncaster54th4th0
2026-04-08Catterick44th3rd+1
2025-10-27Redcar55th5th0
2025-09-09Leicester42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/088/045/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength11%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/202510th10/147%18%-0.29
09/09/20252nd14/126%90%+0.64
27/10/20255th5/174%50%-0.24
08/04/20264th17/255%70%+0.15
02/05/20264th7/163%63%-0.01
23/05/202610th11/271%31%-0.40
05/07/20268th14/126%46%+0.20