2
Forest Caper
5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 72
Southwell · Festive Fixtures At Southwell Racecourse Handicap · 7f 15y
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thirsk | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-24 | Southwell | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +6.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 18% | -0.56 |
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 56% | -0.08 |
| 17/01/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 82% | +0.27 |
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 70% | +0.15 |
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 24/02/2026 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 10% | -0.45 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |