5
Mystical Storm
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 69
Southwell · Festive Fixtures At Southwell Racecourse Handicap · 7f 15y
#10
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Pontefract | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Doncaster | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-09-01 | Carlisle | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-08-15 | Thirsk | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-07-26 | York | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength40%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 22/05/2025 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 10% | -0.72 |
| 10/07/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 26/07/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 15/08/2025 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 13% | -0.70 |
| 01/09/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 25/10/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.01 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |