Packetofbiscuits
4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 72
Southwell · Festive Fixtures At Southwell Racecourse Handicap · 7f 15y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
88%
Place Prob
66%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Thirsk | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Southwell | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Thirsk | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Doncaster | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 11/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.21 |
| 18/04/2026 | 12th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 30/04/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 18/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/09/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 17/09/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |