Alfa Duplicate
3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 74
Southwell · Golf & Gallop Southwell Golf Club Handicap · 6f 17y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Chester | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Doncaster | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | York | 2 | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-04 | Beverley | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -13.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 04/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 58% | +0.32 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |