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3

An Outlaw's Grace

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 75

Southwell · Golf & Gallop Southwell Golf Club Handicap · 6f 17y

#6

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winless since debut but made more of an impact off a career-low mark when second at Windsor last month. Not seen to best effect on very testing ground at Goodwood last time (made effort furthest from rail) but others still strike as likelier winners overall.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength91%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 10/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 82 · 6f20y Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 82 par10/044OR 823 @ Windsor 11/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 80 · 6f12y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 19th of 20 · OR 80 · 6f Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 80 par23/054OR 804 @ Windsor 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 79 · 6f12y GF 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Windsor 13/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 79 · 6f12y Goo 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 79 par13/074OR 794 @ Windsor 20/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 79 · 6f12y GF 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Salisbury 12/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 78 par12/083OR 784 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 76 · 6f12y Sft 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Goodwood 08/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 76 · 6f Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 76 par8/094OR 76projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Goodwood46th5th+1
2026-08-29Windsor42nd1st+1
2026-08-12Salisbury37th5th+2
2026-07-20Windsor44th3rd+1
2026-07-13Windsor45th4th+1
2026-06-27Windsor43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0427/0612/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength14%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/04/20266th3/184%17%-0.68
11/05/20262nd16/116%88%+0.72
23/05/202619th20/10%5%+0.05
27/06/20263rd10/147%78%+0.30
13/07/20265th13/266%64%-0.02
20/07/20264th6/168%57%-0.11
12/08/20267th12/137%0%-0.37
29/08/20262nd14/126%88%+0.61
08/09/20266th17/255%17%-0.39