IvyArcIvyArc
5

Come On Over

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 76

Southwell · Golf & Gallop Southwell Golf Club Handicap · 6f 17y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Big career best when doubling tally at Redcar in August and has backed that up with a pair of excellent runner-up efforts, finding only a progressive one too good at that track 11 days ago. Went down by only a nose at Wolverhampton just 3 days later and he's likely to be in the mix once more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 65 · 6f2y Goo 135 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 65 par14/066OR 656 @ Doncaster 26/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 65 · 6f2y GF 135 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Doncaster 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 64 · 6f2y GF 135 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 64 par3/076OR 645 @ Nottingham 21/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 68 · 5f8y Goo 130 · below its mark21/07/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Doncaster 01/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 68 · 6f2y GF 131 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 68 par1/085OR 685 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 67 · 5f217y Goo 129 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Lingfield 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 6f1y Std 134 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 74 par3/095OR 744 @ Redcar 15/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 75 · 5f217y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Wolverhampton 18/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 75 · 6f20y Std 138 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 75 par18/095OR 75projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Wolverhampton52nd2nd0
2026-09-15Redcar42nd1st+1
2026-09-03Lingfield52nd2nd0
2026-08-22Redcar51st1st0
2026-08-01Doncaster54th4th0
2026-07-21Nottingham54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0621/073/0918/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength93%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/06/20264th18/15%77%+0.72
26/06/20262nd5/174%88%+0.14
03/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
21/07/20264th5/287%0%-0.87
01/08/20264th16/116%57%+0.41
22/08/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
03/09/20262nd15/261%83%+0.23
15/09/20262nd11/271%92%+0.21
18/09/20262nd2/189%89%-0.01