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10

Fenlander

5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 72

Southwell · Golf & Gallop Southwell Golf Club Handicap · 6f 17y

#7

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took 17 runs to get off the mark but suddenly went on the upgrade in the summer, completing a hat-trick at Nottingham in June and running as well when third at Newmarket next time. Not quite in the same form on his last 2 outings (over C&D last time) and has since left Pam Sly for 6,000 gns.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength62%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 60 · 6f16y Std 130 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 60 par5/046OR 605 @ Yarmouth 21/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 61 · 6f3y GF 126 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Leicester 09/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 61 · 7f Goo 126 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 61 par9/055OR 615 @ Leicester 25/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 59 · 6f Goo 125 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Leicester 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 63 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 63 par13/065OR 635 @ Nottingham 25/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 72 · 6f18y Goo 135 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Newmarket 18/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 74 · 6f GF 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 74 par18/074OR 744 @ Newmarket 07/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 74 · 6f GF 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Southwell 27/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 73 · 6f16y Std 138 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 73 par27/085OR 73projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Southwell56th6th0
2026-08-07Newmarket45th4th+1
2026-07-18Newmarket43rd2nd+1
2026-06-25Nottingham51st1st0
2026-06-13Leicester51st1st0
2026-05-25Leicester51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0425/0518/0727/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 8-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength13%

Delivery trend -0.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20262nd9/488%88%-0.01
21/04/20263rd13/891%60%-0.31
09/05/20266th18/581%38%-0.44
25/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
13/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
25/06/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
18/07/20263rd4/179%71%-0.08
07/08/20265th4/179%56%-0.23
27/08/20266th4/179%50%-0.29