Lunar Melody
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 75
Southwell · Golf & Gallop Southwell Golf Club Handicap · 6f 17y
#12
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Carlisle | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Doncaster | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-09-01 | Carlisle | 3 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 29/07/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |