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13

Massimo Blue

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 71

Southwell · Golf & Gallop Southwell Golf Club Handicap · 6f 17y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

31%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained back-to-back C&D wins on his first 2 starts for this yard (formerly with George Baker) last month and did well to go so close having completely blown the start when beaten less than a length into fourth in a 12-runner handicap at Yarmouth (6f, good) 10 days ago. Should be bang there.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chelmsford City 23/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 60 · 5f Std 136 · beat its mark23/10/2025 · OR 60 par23/106OR 605 @ Southwell 28/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 68 · 6f16y Std 133 · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Chelmsford City 15/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 67 · 6f Std 132 · beat its mark15/01/2026 · OR 67 par15/015OR 675 @ Newbury 23/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 65 · 6f Goo 137 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Kempton 02/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 65 · 6f Sta 130 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 65 par2/075OR 656 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 65 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Southwell 16/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 65 · 6f16y Std 140 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 65 par16/086OR 655 @ Southwell 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 65 · 6f16y Std 130 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 65 par4 @ Yarmouth 16/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 71 · 6f3y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 71 par16/094OR 71projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Yarmouth44th3rd+1
2026-08-27Southwell51st1st0
2026-08-16Southwell61st2nd−1
2026-07-21Wolverhampton63rd4th−1
2026-07-02Kempton53rd3rd0
2026-06-23Newbury55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/1023/0616/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.4% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/10/20254th13/891%50%-0.41
28/11/20259th17/255%20%-0.35
15/01/20265th6/168%43%-0.26
23/06/20265th8/158%64%+0.06
02/07/20263rd20/10%80%+0.80
21/07/20263rd5/287%80%-0.07
16/08/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
27/08/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
16/09/20264th9/488%73%-0.15