4
Charmingly Evasive
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 89
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
43%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength74%
Delivery trend +6.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |