11
Elusive Yaupon
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 87
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
Delivery trend -9.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |