13
Fleury
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 79
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength52%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 17% | -0.71 |
| 24/08/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 15/11/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 29/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 30/08/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |