9
Hawberry
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 92
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength63%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |